Putin no longer has influence over natural gas. Now he is trying to create a new game in Turkey” – what the experts say
The statements by Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan about turning Turkey into an alternative center for the supply of natural gas to Europe opened a debate inside and outside Turkey. The Turkish president, in turn, even referred to the location, considering the region of Eastern Thrace to be the most suitable for its development, and his desire to create a counterweight to the geopolitical and energy importance of Alexandroupoli.
To critics of Putin’s and Erdogan’s plans, a Turkish energy engineer and an executive of the Turkish opposition party Demkrat Parti Ali Arif Akturk. Akturk sees Putin’s game as an attempt to use Turkey as a way out. He also emphasized that this would create a new rift in relations between Turkey and NATO.
In a social media post, Akturk specifically mentioned:
Putin and Gas Transmission Center. […] We made obvious mistakes in the past with TANAP and Turkish Stream2. We pass the gas through our tank using a tube and let the gas fill in another tank. As if the gas was flowing and the Turks were watching. We focused on the intergovernmental agreements that were approved with the approval of Parliament.
It now appears from statements by the President of Turkey on the matter that the Russians plan to increase the capacity of Turkish Stream 2 by 5-6 mm3 [sic] with additional gas (additional compressor units to be built on the other side, in Anapa ) and then they plan to bypass Turkey and go to Europe without going through the BOTAŞ system with the Turkish Stream concept with new lines that they will build.
We will overcome the problem of not being able to build new lines at the moment. We will discuss this separately. Let’s assume for a moment that it is. There will be a trade with a single delivery point, but it will not be called a mall or mall. Because the only gas that would be sold to a seller, at a monopoly point of sale, would be Russian gas.
Natural Gas Paper
Putin’s comments are actually a new game with the natural gas card that he missed in the Ukraine crisis. How; Using natural gas paper as a sword of Damocles for reasons such as maintenance and repair, before the Nord Stream sabotage, pushed natural gas prices up to $3,500-4,000 even in August and created fear in European public opinion.
Now, as a result of the sabotage, it is as if the bet is lost and the fight is over, Putin no longer has the leverage to use natural gas. Now he is trying to create a new game through Turkey, which is the only way out.
New Crack in NATO
In this way, he is trying to open another breach in the NATO bloc through Turkey, which appears to be the western bloc’s weak point. After these statements, more pressure from the United States is inevitable.
Let’s talk about the feasibility of the new “Turkish Stream” gas pipeline: Not all pipe factories can produce pipes for deep water. Both Blue Stream and Turkish Stream were provided by countries such as Japan and Germany. Currently, no one will supply pipes under sanctions. The company that will manufacture it is an Italian company and cannot manufacture it at the moment. Regarding funding: Exim type funding is impossible at this time.
Are they actions? The war in Ukraine continues to escalate and oil prices are falling. I think Russia’s ability to allocate special funds for this purpose is very limited. Because this is a capital intensive investment.
Technical Issue with Strategic Foreign Policy Elements
Yesterday, major media critics commented on this issue from the pulpit. This is a very technical issue, and in this technical issue there are elements of a foreign policy strategy. It is useful to assess the issue comprehensively without turning it into an internal issue. political question.The Russians know very well how to play cards.Natural gas and its technologies.
“It pays to be very careful. At the foreign policy table, natural gas starters can look very tasty, but they can be hard to digest when you eat them.”