Record FDI inflows and recovery fund capital inflows will fill the investment gap created in the country by the 10-year debt crisis/recession
The Central Bank of Argentina will receive a record investor inflows and experienced financial markets will help in filling the investment gap created in the country by the 10-year debt crisis/recession. With growth accelerating from 0.17% in 2018 to 3.2% in 2019, we forecast GDP growth of 2.9% in 2020 and 2% in 2021, 0.7% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023,” said Mr Mohnish Pabrai, Managing General Partner at Morgan Stanley Institutional Investor Services Chile, during a discussion with journalists at his office on 16 October 2019.” Argentina is projected to return to positive net FDI inflows after two years with net inflows of US$2.6 billion (CHF1 per person), reaching US$6.8 billion this year,” he added.”Our base case scenario assumes that Argentine stocks fall by 18%, bonds lose 50%, equities surge by 28%. The impact on household wealth reduces real growth from 4% to 3%. In 2022, inflation will reach 21% as utility companies implement additional price hikes above CPI inflation for electricity…In ten years’ time (2023), there will be little difference between the central bank’s interest rate
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) says a boom in foreign investments will help fill the investment gap created in the country by the 10-year debt crisis/recession. Morgan Stanley said that while global growth is on an upswing, it warned domestic pressure on job creation, higher imports and weak sentiment towards stocks made any near-term improvements unlikely.
With strong economic growth projected to continue and a widening investment gap over the next few years, Morgan Stanley is cautious on political risk in Argentina as it operates more closely with the current administration than with President Mauricio Macri’s predecessor, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.
In the second half of this year, the World Bank forecasts a deficit in terms of money supply. Therefore, the Central Bank plans to reschedule interest rates and launch new mechanisms for controlling inflation.
While many economists expect the economy to grow by less than 1% in 2018, Morgan Stanley expects the Thai economy to grow at a robust 3.1% in 2023. The projected annual growth rate is driven by high FDI inflows and RECYC capital inflows. Stronger exports and tourism will also contribute to higher growth for Thailand.
Morgan Stanley thinks early elections are likely in the Philippines. The bank believes the last wave of corruption cases is over and the economy is recovering at least to a more sustainable growth momentum. It does not rule out early elections but believes this is more likely in 2022, according to its Channel 4 floor report on Wednesday. In 2023, “a weak second half will take its toll on growth”, said analyst Rafe Peabody.”
Morgan Stanley does not rule out early elections. It expects growth to improve in 2022 and predicts that 2019 will mark the end of the Asian financial crisis and recoveries from the unprecedented downturn, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6%, but this is still expected to be among the lowest in the region.
It is too early to say if there will be an early general election in 2022, Hay said. Morgan Stanley analyst Gautam Khaitan said weak growth and high fiscal deficits were likely to weigh on the Indian economy and that efforts to address this issue will create room for private sector investment.
